most red zone touchdowns all timemost red zone touchdowns all time
. Rest-of-season expected points added (EPA) per play for NFL teams that started the season with a red zone EPA per play between 0.40 and 0.50 in their first three games, 2016-2021, plus the 2022 Miami Dolphins. So I wondered: how much does red zone performance correlate with winning percentage? Not particularly exciting unless we had a live feed of this: "Dagummit! NFL Red Zone Stats - Quarterbacks Weeks 1 to 17 (2022) What is the Red Zone in football? Find out more. This is the first of many teams whose ranking is complicated. But that game, like the Broncos overall, was better in concept than in reality. Or write about sports? Through the first seven games of the season, Ohio State had driven into the red zone 29 times. To make it go from the friend zone to the end zone. And if so, can we assess team performance in the red zone in a slightly different way? But failing to get a touchdown on first down in no way guarantees you a second-and-goal from the 1. The Chargers have visited the red zone less than almost any other team this season. #BUFvsAZ on CBS pic.twitter.com/vBKF5ufIVo, The fact that Josh Allen completed this pass is crazy @JoshAllenQB @BuffaloBills #BUFvsAZ on CBS pic.twitter.com/KPrNAYqW3T, Josh Allen has a Pass TD & Rush TD in a game for the 15th time in his career, the 2nd-most by a player in his first 3 seasons in NFL history behind Cam Newton's 20.Allen's 15 such games are by far the most in the NFL since he entered the league in 2018. pic.twitter.com/DVE0Pl8QND. Jabrill Peppers is my favorite player on the defense. He's currently second only to the 2015 Ghost of Peyton Manning in the biggest dropoff in DYAR from his previous three seasons' average. Thanks, you can have a look at our website which is also good It's all deep sideline shots and underneath stuff. The only thing worth watching is who gets fired and who gets benched. This is a very good team with a real chance of a playoff run. For now, just enjoy the weirdness. Last year, I dubbed the worst four teams on this list the Four Horsemen of the RedZone Apocalypse. Instead, offenses generally either score or get stopped. Jones has turned 22 carries inside the 20-yard line into an NFL-high 11 touchdowns. Does any doubt that 0.1 is twice as big as 0.05 (that is, it's 100% greater)? Only eight teams have run more plays inside the opponents red zone, with the Chiefs skewing heavily to the pass when they are down there, though some of that is skewed by their shovel pass plays to the likes of Travis Kelce, that are recorded as passing plays but are effectively just forward handoffs surrounding run blocking schemes. This week, The Wall Street Journal detailed that, statistically, the Chargers have by far the most horrible losses in the sport. Given their offense its no surprise to learn that no team has run as many plays in the red zone as the New England Patriots, but its perhaps more surprising to see how relatively inefficient they have been at converting those into touchdowns. No Andrew Luck for the Colts was always going to lead to a miserable season of offense, and while Jacoby Brissett continues to flash enough good play to remain an intriguing quarterback for the future, his play manifests itself in flashes rather than consistent efficiency. A pair of the top tight ends from the region visited Rutgers football on Thursday. Of his 13 career receiving scores, just one has come from outside of the red zone. People will think they'll get slightly more potato chips that previous cans held. The Redskins have been a balanced red zone offense, with just one fewer rushing attempt than they have passing plays, and that is reflected by seven rushing scores compared to nine through the air. The Eagles are one of the games best offenses, so its no surprise to see them maintain those standards once they hit the red zone. You should watch Deshaun Watson every time he drops backsomething special can always happenbut his franchise has stacked the deck against him. Once an offense has a first down inside the 5-yard line, the end zone has to be the goal of every play. A few years ago, NFL Networks RedZone host, Scott Hanson, told me that because offenses can score from anywhere on the field now, the channel has had to get more precise in how and when to present each touchdown. Lets say this up top: If Jameis Winston started in place of the injured Drew Brees, the Saints might be no. Uhh how is that misleading in any way? This season the Eagles have used 27 more of these plays than any other team, and it allows QB Carson Wentz to simplify his reads and stretch defenses schematically. Why Are American Teens So Unhappy? He'd have to hit -1,535 passing DYAR to pass Manning pic.twitter.com/2bQwlNu452. 1 in these rankings. UPSET. Atlantas high-octane offense from a season ago feels like its just been running a little rough this year. But failing to get a touchdown on first down in no way guarantees you a second-and-goal from the 1. (10 parts per hundred is 5 parts per hundred greater then 5 parts per hundred). The reason it connected with Seahawks fans is that it is their reality. Sean McVay is back. Hanson once told me that the worst RedZone teams are the ones who get there and then waste time with no efficiency. We ask all these burning questions, and more! The same paper also found that in 2016, the Chargers lost four consecutive games in which they had win probabilities in the third quarter or later of 77.9 percent, 84.7 percent, and 99.9 percent twice. Aren't teams with better offenses more likely to get first downs closer to the end zone? 100 carries, PFF)2014 Cam Newton (43.7%)2015 Newton (42.4%)2011 Newton (41.8%)2020 Newton (41.6%)2020 Kyler Murray (40%), Kyler Murray is special.2nd & 9, Cardinals 35-yard line, 2nd quarter at Giants.His feet. This is entertaining but not visually appealing. And later on, there is discussion of whether or not double-dipping is an acceptable way to eat! He rushed for 1,066 yards and 17 touchdowns. You cant predict a 60-yard touchdown in the same way you can a 5-yarder, yet 60-yard touchdowns are increasingly common in this era of football. They have a long way to go, however, to be anything other than mediocre. . .531/.584 =.909, In reply to Re: A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone by Jeremy (not verified). For now, its mostly Teddy Bridgewater playing mistake-free football and little else. Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley has one of the most interesting defenses in the sport. The probability of the average run from the 1 succeeding on first down, plus the probability of the average run from the 1 succeeding on second down after gaining zero yards on the first run, plus the probability of the average run from the 1 succeeding on third down after gaining zero yards on the second run, is 90.4%. TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. But New England is still one of the most inefficient teams in the red zone and simply doesnt score enough to be worth watching. Looking at some passers that have relied on longer touchdown passes to carry their totals, Daniel Jones (45.7%), Tyrod Taylor (44.4%), Sam Darnold (44.4%), and Dak Prescott (44.3%) have all thrown over 40% of their career scores from outside of the red zone. That wouldn't affect the significance of the dip at ten, but might flatten the curve 0-10. This is a bad team to watch. The Steelers have the weaponry to be the best offense in the game, but continue to struggle in 2017, and nowhere more than when the field gets compressed and they need to execute better. SENIOR SUCCESS. When they have got there this season though they have been one of the games most efficient teams at converting that field position into touchdowns, even if it has been 100 percent through the air. Jared Goff with an absolutely flawless spike after his rushing TD today. Evans, Godwin, White and Gibs on the field at the same time with a coach who . All-time touchdown pass leader (including playoffs): 603 touchdowns, set on Dec. 9, 2018 Most touchdown passes with one team (including playoffs): 603 touchdowns All-time total. Use promo code, Hendon Hooker and Warren Zevon: Combine Notebook, XFL Week 3 Preview: St. Louis, D.C. You don't currently have any notifications. So 584-531=53, and 53/531=9.1. Colin, I would like to see a breakdown of running & passing plays on a separate chart, along with success rates by particular play choice. Relative to the pre-merger period, this means that there are fewer long touchdowns. And the team does enough to make Jared Goff look OK: Jared Goff's average pass traveled 3.5 yards past the LOS Sunday - the lowest of any starter. The Chargers do things like this: Ladies and gentlemen, the Los Angeles Chargers pic.twitter.com/sB6XiCttff, QB IS SNEAKING WHEN O-LINE IS DROPPING IN PASS PROFIRE EVERYONE pic.twitter.com/633syvqRNr. Well, were laughing now, but we might laugh in a good way. Please enter a valid email and try again. The NFLs RedZone Channel is, in an increasingly polarized world, one thing we can all agree on. Aside from that, though, I think you'd want your skill players not to overthink it. 2022 Red Zone Stats Passing Receiving Rushing All Rights Reserved. The higher the percentage of red zone touchdowns to overall offensive touchdowns, the more important red zone performance becomes. They have tried to take the ball out of his hands when they have hit the red zone, running the ball eight more times than they have put it in the air, resulting in two more rushing touchdowns. On defense, Pittsburgh has playmakers like Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt to spice things up, but they dont offset how unfun it is to see Big Ben hobbling around. Lamar Jackson has questioned the predictability of the teams play-calling, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman has come under fire. His ineffectiveness in the red zone (and. An unwatchable mess. Only five teams have run more plays from the red zone than the Steelers. Honestly, thats a new low. It doesnt take a degree in Advanced Footballology to know that marching down the field and then scoring in the red zone leads to wins. : @MattHintonPhoto pic.twitter.com/8Lj71bdluJ. Black is a 6-foot-3, 235-pound tight end prospect who is ranked as a three-star by 247Sports. Coincidentally, the top six scoring RBs all had double-digit rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season. 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The most popular Buccaneers blog on earth. Allen is one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the game and has made a living in the red zone. It becomes much clearer if you remember that percentages are actually *fractions*. I see this abused frequently in analyses of risk functions, where going from 1% risk to 0.5% risk is referred to as a 50% decrease in risk. Let me touchdown I'mma get it. The Fins have been especially great in the red zone, averaging almost 0.5 expected points added per play across 20 snaps, best in the NFL through Week 3. Converting field goals is a great luxury, but touchdowns are better. There hasnt been a lot of watchable football in New York. That doesnt mean you should be excited when RedZone cuts to them. brady list police massachusetts. Dallas has been able to pass for a dozen touchdowns in the red zone thanks to Dak Prescotts accuracy, while still leaning on that offensive line and their blocking for their ground game. In 33 trips inside the 20-yard line, Notre Dame has come away with just 19 touchdowns. I suppose New England would be high on your list if youre into Pats schadenfreude. Of course, that's a side-effect of selection: the best running attacks don't need three tries to score. Ultimately, when it comes to NFL teams in the red zone, just showing up is a big part of the battle. They have at least been relatively efficient when it comes to scoring once they get inside the 20, with a rate that sits inside the top third of teams in the league. The Broncos turn the ball over on nearly 20 percent of their drives, by far the most in the NFL, which at least keeps things interesting. For one, according to the wisdom of the commentators, the closer the offense gets to the goal line, the less territory the defense has to cover. They also have a purpose. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Garrett Wilson, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson, AP Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa, Passing Leader: Patrick Mahomes, 5250 Yds, Receiving Leader: Justin Jefferson, 1809 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2:32PM. What Is Touch Percentage In Red Zone? (LJS file photo) What are the most memorable Husker touchdowns for every yard on the field, from 1 to 100? Personally, I would be able to understand both versions. using % increase to describe the increse in two percentage values, where you divide by the original percentage, is inherently misleading and is bad form. No other player has more than nine rushing touchdowns from inside the red zone. The chart shows the probability of scoring a touchdown based on down, yard line, and play choice. It's a 50% decrease in relative risk. pic.twitter.com/JhTjtXu32L, Oof, theres the Brandon Allen I remember pic.twitter.com/VBgG5ZiySO. They have promise. The 6-foot-7, 260-pound tight end has caught an. They were bad prior to Dak Prescotts season-ending injury in October, but they have run the gauntlet of humiliations since then. Coming in with nine rushing touchdowns in the red zone is Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have just benched quarterback Tyrod Taylor in an attempt to spark some life into a team that was surprisingly in the hunt early in the season. Everyone would say that it's twice as likely, or (50-25)/25 = 100% more likely. Please disable your ad blocker to view the video content. Ill take all of that you got. As you might expect from a quarterback of his experience, Philip Rivers has taken just one sack in the red zone this season. Josh Hermsmeyer is a football writer and analyst. Other than that, good stuff. A second potential wrench in the idea that being closer to the end zone is always better is that a first down from 11-to-15 yards out offers the opportunity for a team to get a first down inside the opponents 5-yard line, where the probability of scoring a touchdown is very high. This writing shows that you have great writing skills.. well done, I want to make a good looking website like yours. Thirteen other teams have started the year with similar red zone efficiency numbers to Miami since 2016, and not one was able to maintain its efficiency going forward. The Jets havent been the best offense in the world, but they have surprised a lot of people. If you're at the 25, couldn't you mention to rodgers, (or RGIII, or any other smart quarterback that scrambles a lot) "If you scramble, don't run out of bounds right at the 10?" A lead isnt a lead against the Chiefs, and thats why they are incredible to watch. Rest-of-season expected points added (EPA) per play for NFL teams that started the season with a red zone EPA per play between -0.80 and -0.50 in their first three games, 2016-2021, plus the 2022 Denver Broncos. You could gain half a yard, in which case QB sneaks come into play; you could lose yards if the opponent gets backfield penetration; you could even turn it over if the ball is fumbled. They have run exactly as many passing plays as rushing plays when in red zone situations. *for some unspecified value of "probably". The next closest team, the 49ers, had 47, or a difference of more than 10 percent.. Plus, does starting Tyrese Maxey versus DeAnthony Melton make a difference on the defensive end? Will Tashaun Gipson Remain in San Francisco? And, like the Falcons, once they fired their bad coach, things got a little more boring. 2015 Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 46.15 Denver has averaged 3.2 red zone scoring attempts per game, which is tied for 10th in the league, but has only come away with 1.48 red zone. Only the Denver Broncos at 37.5 percent have been worse at turning trips inside its opponent's 20-yard . Lets watch this team! player with most redzone touchdowns all-time Rice Smith Tomlinson Moss Owens Allen Faulk Carter Harrison Peterson Brown Payton Fitzgerald Gates Riggins Moore Alexander Gonzalez Sanders Brown Hutson Largent 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 208 175 162 157 156 145 . He is getting better as a passer: TAYSOM HILL #Saints pic.twitter.com/gUgJT2mMoY, Taysom Hill with the DIME and the #Saints arent done pic.twitter.com/GK2CK5M81u. 1 on this list. All of the pieces are still there, but its not quite firing on all cylinders. TCU's Jalen Reagor in 2020 was the most recent. Things begin to fall apart once the offense gets in the red zone, though. Baker Mayfield has had six games with fewer than 200 yards passing, which is partly attributable to the weather Cleveland has played in, and partly due to a change in their style of play. Penn State didn't emphasize him in the passing game, so whether . Its not Jameis, but its the next best thing. 2020 Lions have joined the 2011 Vikings as the only teams in NFL history to lose 3 of their 1st 4 games after holding double-digit leads'11 Vikings started 0-4 & blew a double-digit lead in 3 of those gms, before finishing 3-13The Falcons could join these teams tomorrow night. Here are the criteria: The Cowboys Week 15 game against the Niners was recently flexed out of Sunday Night Football night in favor of a Browns-Giants game. When they are on, things will happen. Johnson's six passing touchdowns not only was a single-game record but moved him into seventh place on the JMU career list, as he now has 38. Picks, tools and data that give you an edge in NFL survivor and knockout style pools. A.J. But its coming. Moreover, the chance of a catastrophic loss of yardage that would make scoring a touchdown on subsequent plays very unlikely is much lower for rushing plays than for passing plays, not only because of sacks, but because of the possibility of offensive holding penalties. On the other side, the Browns went 19 for 39 (49%, -1.7) on offense and allowed 31 touchdowns on 46 red zone trips (67%, -6.6) on defense, making Cleveland -8.3 for the year. You had to watch them if they were in the double box. There are two Eagles teams. What a time. That way you avoid confusing the issue, possibly making a blunder, and occasionally score the improbable TD. In the second diagram is running blue and passing red? The Patriots are not particularly good, and theyre not nearly as good as they should be in the red zone. It is not possible to measure TDs in a way to make them worth less than 6 points, unlike products, which be measured in multiple ways, eg, "This product is sold by weight, not by volume. Hes tied for first with Mike Evans in touchdowns inside the 10 and second in touchdowns inside the 20. Whats important here is that the Seahawks games are getting weirder: Seattles defense is worse this year and its offense is better. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. They can feature any player they want, whether its Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, or whomever else, and score quickly and emphatically. PckTme - Passing pocket time Definition. Only 11 scores from that area of the field though speaks to their issues getting there reliably. No one is all that close to that mark. The list is a hit-or-miss group that ranges from Corey Coleman, who played just three seasons, to CeeDee Lamb, a two-time Pro Bowl selection. You never knew what was coming next. There is an unpredictability to everything the Titans do, coupled with the fact that A.J. Whatever the reason, instead of expecting teams to make more out of their opportunities in the red zone, perhaps teams should look to a different goal: getting more red zone opportunities, period. To play the most entertaining football in the league. Typically, teams with a first-and-goal from inside the 10 score a touchdown 64 percent of the time. Red Zone. They have run more plays inside the red zone than all but six other teams, but they havent quite been as efficient as you might expect, with Julio Jones in particular unable to bring in those scores. when in truth you're getting 5 more potato crisps.". The Raiders are not unwatchable, but theyre not nearly as watchable as they could be. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and . Fingers crossed. On offense, Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in aggressive throws. Red zone snaps per game in Weeks 1-3 explains around 9 percent of the variance in rest-of-season red zone snaps per game. All Rights Reserved. Thats something to watch. It is an action movie with almost no dialogue and more explosions. The Hurts-led version of the Eagles is clearly better and has a very high watchability ceiling. On the other side, the Browns went 19 for 39 (49%, -1.7) on offense and allowed 31 touchdowns on 46 red zone trips (67%, -6.6) on defense, making Cleveland -8.3 for the year. In the past few years, the Jets have, at times, been. In the past few years, the Jets have, at times, been funny, but theyve ceased even to make us laugh this year. Or does luck and regression to the mean dominate results inside the 20? He'll need to develop a more advanced route tree at the next level. 9.1% is the percent increase above 534. But for the season, the Broncos futility inside the 20 has been the worst in the league by far. The more red zone carries a player receivers, the higher their chances are at scoring a . And it's incredibly disengenious. But what's the point of saying that the mathematically accurate version is misleading? If healthy, Evans is a lethal red zone target and creates major mismatches for opposing teams. Jimmy Garoppolo getting the ball in playmakers hands and letting them run through peoples faces is fun. The offense has looked stagnant at times this season. They were Washington, the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Alex Smiths completed air yards per pass, 3.9, is last in the league. The NFL's 10 least aggressive passers vs. 10 most aggressive (number is % of throws where a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of pass), per NGS.Interesting so many effective scramblers (Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Darnold, Murray) are among first group pic.twitter.com/zN27Jc8brm. The Bears are something different: a threat to score from nowhere, a slog no matter where they are on the field. When the author is writing "The standard selection of plays on first through third down from the 1 results in a touchdown 88.9 percent of the time, but running on all three downs increases this to 90.4 percent -- a small but not insignificant difference," only pedantry can show that he's wrong. Sabermetrics like this work in baseball and basketball to determine betting order and shot selection because teams have essentially perfect information; managers know the expected batting average of their players against different types of pitchers in baseball, and the expected shooting percentage at different spots on the floor of their players in basketball; in football the added element of deceit complicates matters. Injuries have dealt a huge blow to the Niners watchability and their success. It was @pff_seth who first pointed this out to me, and now I can't unsee it. Terry McLaurin is such a good route runner pic.twitter.com/gA7gw2zlNF. Theyll take that. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, A Closer Look at Touchdowns in the Red Zone, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. In Tampa, however, the things that are happening are not all that good. All Rights Reserved. At the same time, they showed progress and laid the groundwork for finding more success with a short field moving forward. And in September and October, they looked vaguely watchable. They have a plethora of receiving weapons, so its no surprise that this team is unbalanced with far more of their red zone scores coming through the air than on the ground. Im OK with this team in a triple box. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. Lamar to Mark Andrews! (Patriots, Im looking at you.). They are one of the few teams in the league to have run more down inside the 20 than they have passed which fits their offense and it has resulted in an equal distribution of scores between rushing and passing. Last year, I wrote of the Eagles: Not just bad, boring. They are still bad, but they are no longer boring. And the luckiest pass of the week has to be Mike Glennon's turnover-worthy TD pic.twitter.com/ADDQVDKvfy. It might be a good approximation, yes. But we have to watch for one reason: When Jackson drops back, there is a chance that we are about to see the coolest thing weve ever seen. The probability of 90.4% is probably* a good approximation. Thielen has helped Cousins produce a success rate of 66.7 on all red-zone targets, good for the best rate in the NFL, along with a total red-zone line of 15-of-21 for 134 yards and eight TD passes . 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Todd Gurleys resurgence continues across the board, including down inside the 20. Except at the opponents 1-yard line, a passing play is typically preferable to running on any given play, and the probability of scoring a touchdown on any given play is lower the farther a team gets from the opponents end zone. Are the Lakers dead? We present them here for purely educational purposes. http://smartphonesunder10000.com/best-smartphones-under-10000-rupees/ Through this opportunity-based view of red zone success, Miamis 20 total snaps good for 21st in the NFL dont look quite so great. Could James Harden Potentially Return to Houston After the Season? ", "Sort of like seeing a Pringles can with an extra inch of cardboard loudly proclaiming "9.1% more - FREE!" The only entertainment here is the subtext. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. Kittle is carving out a new role as the 49ers rely on him less for pass catching volume, and more as a big play machine and a red zone weapon. The standard selection of plays on first through third down from the 1 results in a touchdown 88.9 percent of the time, but running on all three downs increases this to 90.4 percent -- a small but not insignificant difference. Gibbs RB from bama to pair up with white would be awesome. I have reservations about your usage, primarily because of its ambiguity. Drew Lock leads the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempthes the only QB averaging over 9 yards per attempt. The Bears can be described the same way. 1 spot in future seasons. Can you imagine, man, the Dallas Cowboys flexed out for the Cleveland Browns? Michael Irvin said. Denver Broncos (59) I am sure the effect is small (we are only talking about a yard or two here) but all the effects here are small and the sample size is large. Cam Newton had nine rushing touchdowns on 23 carries from inside his opponents' 10-yard lines. Arizona has been hampered by one of the worse offensive lines in the game, and that really limits their ability to just pound the ball in when the field gets condensed. Rodgers completed 21 of his 31 red zone passing attempts, and accounts for 11 of those 13 passing scores. The Steelers blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL and they pressure and knock down quarterbacks more than anyone in the league. Now, the Cowboys have been abandoned by the one group that has stuck with them through thick and thin: television executives. All rights reserved. With his precise route-running and superb hands,. Is Golden State a sleeping giant? . In summary, ball-carriers should have the simple, aggressive thought of fighting for every possible yard. Hopkins was the Texans' top red zone target and producer. Edgy analysis, and 24/7 Bucs football news on JoeBucsFan.com. Diggs is right that the Vikings prefer a more conservative style, but they can be watchable in spurts, which is the point of this list. Drew Brees and the passing game has also accounted for nine scores through the air, with Brees himself taking credit for one of those rushing scores this past week against the Bills. This is a tough one. It'd be interesting to see the probability of teams scoring touchdowns with three straight runs after getting a first down at the 1, compared to three straight passes. Notre Dame's opponents have scored on all 17 of their red zone trips, and. Now wed take them to Kansas City. Taysom Hill TD x 2Not bad for a tight end pic.twitter.com/ZgmJwvM8P4. @friscojosh, NFL (974 posts) Whereas the general "3rd and 1 from the 1" statistic also includes the team that got 8 yards of rushing from 1st and 9 and 2nd and 5. So The Chiefs Got Creative With Their Roster-Building. When Hanson or host of DirecTVs RedZone, Andrew Siciliano, does cut to the Giants, theres always a chance that Jones is about to fumble, which he does at a historic rate.
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